How to Expect the Unexpected

Calendar: Lecture

Date: Wednesday, 8 Oct 2025 7:30 pm

Locations: & CSTS Zoom Channel ID 912 0723 6181 , Royal Agricultural University - Sir Emrys Jones Lecture Theatre

Speaker: Prof. Kit Yates, Professor of Mathematical Biology and Public Engagement

University of Bath

Description

Professor Kit Yates will explore themes from his book How to Expect the Unexpected, examining the challenges of prediction in an uncertain world. He will discuss how human intuition struggles with forecasting due to cognitive biases, particularly our tendency to assume linearity in situations where exponential growth or feedback loops are at play. This misperception can lead to critical errors, such as underestimating the rapid spread of disease or failing to appreciate the urgency of the climate crisis.

Kit will emphasise the necessity of embracing uncertainty rather than resisting it. He will explore how probabilistic thinking, allows us to refine our expectations as new evidence emerges. Acknowledging randomness and non-linearity, can help individuals make better decisions. By recognising the limits of predictability and cultivating a mindset that balances scepticism with flexibility, the talk will provide audiences with practical tools to navigate an unpredictable world more effectively.

Includes book signing.

Kit Yates is an author, broadcaster and academic specialising in the role of mathematics in everyday life; a speaker who can explain scientific material in layman's language with wit as well as wisdom.

Kit completed his PhD in mathematics at the University of Oxford and is now Professor of Mathematical Biology and Public Engagement at the University of Bath.

He is the author of two books, The Maths of Life and Death (a Sunday Times Science Book of the Year) and now How to Expect the Unexpected.

He is a prominent commentator on the role of mathematics/science in society writing regularly for the Guardian and the Independent and a range of other media outlets. He regularly appears on radio shows like the BBC’s More or Less, and Inside Science as well as on TV news shows and documentaries.

Kit is one of the core scientists that forms Independent SAGE, providing independent scientific advice to policy makers and the public on covid throughout the pandemic.

Location

& CSTS Zoom Channel ID 912 0723 6181

Street: Market Place

City: GL7 Cirencester

County: England

Based in Cirencester, Capital of the Cotswolds

Royal Agricultural University - Sir Emrys Jones Lecture Theatre

Street: Sir Emrys Jones Lecture Theatre, RAU

City: GL7 6JS Cirencester

County: Gloucestershire

Royal Agricultural University (RAU) is situated close to the junction of the A419 (Cirencester to Stroud road) and the A433 (Cirencester to Bath road) on the south-west edge of Cirencester.

The entrance to the Stroud Road car park is off the A419. (Satellite View, RAU page and RAU campus map)

The Parkinson Lecture Theatre (19 on the map) can be found by entering from the Stroud Road car park, and following the path on the right-hand side of the Garner Lecture Block, the first entrance on the right leads to the Parkinson Lecture Theatre.

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